Brexit makes 'no economic sense whatsoever' says expert
At a meeting in Marbella last week, the regional vice-president of the British Chamber of Commerce in Spain, Derek Langley, announced that members of the organisation were practically unanimous (97.4%) in wanting the UK to stay in the European Union.
A survey of BCC members around Spain, explained Langley, had revealed that 78% of members thought that Brexit would be detrimental to the British economy and 70% thought it would affect trade.
The pro-EU views of the Chamber were reflected by economist and researcher Nick Kounis, who spoke to a group of BCC members about the impact of a possible UK exit from the EU from a macroeconomic point of view.
Kounis, who is head of Macro and Financial Markets Research at ABN AMRO bank, said that the UK leaving the EU made “no economic sense whatsoever”.
The EU represents the world’s largest economic bloc, said Kounis, with 24 per cent of the global GDP. One third of all global trade involves the EU and two thirds of cross-border trade. The effect of Brexit on trading relationships with the UK would depend on post-referendum negotiations.
Furthermore, half of the UK’s foreigndirect investment comes from the EU while the motive behind much of non-EU investment in the UK is to have access to the EU market, the economist explained.
Kounis highlighted that the IMF and the OECD agreed that Brexit would cost the UK money, with, according to his research, a fall of 1-3% in the UK’s GDP in 2017.
With a poll of polls showing that the Remain camp is only slightly ahead of the Leave camp, the expert expressed his concern that exit fever could spread. Anti-EU feeling is rising across Europe, he said, with several member states, led by Greece and Cyprus, showing a greater level of pessimism about the future of the EU than the UK, according to an EC barometer.source surinenglish